Conference Survival Fight Part 1 – Bath City

With the season now more than two thirds of the way through and spring on the horizon, despite the cold weather Britain has currently been experiencing, league games are becoming ever more critical.  In the lower reaches of the Conference Premier table nine clubs are threatened with relegation, with 16th placed Lincoln City some 7 points adrift of Ebbsfleet United, the club above them in the league.

This is the first in a series of articles looking at the clubs that are currently involved in the relegation with the view to making an assessment about which clubs are likely to survive and which are likely to be relegated.

Bottom Of The Conference

16	Lincoln City	32	-14	31
17	Newport County	31	-8	30
18	Stockport County	33	-18	29
19	Darlington	32	-9	28
20	AFC Telford	31	-16	28
21	Kettering Town	31	-36	28
22	Alfreton Town	31	-29	25
23	Hayes & Yeading	31	-24	24
24	Bath City	30	-33	18

Of all the sides embroiled in the relegation battle, Bath City are the team in the greatest danger.  They are currently six points adrift at the foot of the table and ten points adrift of safety with many pundits having already written them off as relegation certainties.  Recent form has also provided little evidence to suggest that the Romans are capable of staying up.  After beating Newport County in a critical game at the start of January, Bath City have managed just one point from the subsequent four games, which included a 6-0 trouncing at Grimsby and a 3-0 home reverse against Alfreton Town in a game that the club would have highlighted as a ‘must win’ beforehand.

As with many clubs at the foot of the Conference, Bath City are currently struggling financially.  The Romans made the 1st Round of the FA Cup and earned a replay against Dagenham & Redbridge which earned some much needed and unexpected income after being watched by an impressive crowd of 1,704.  City also progressed to the 3rd Round of the FA Trophy, which should have yielded another healthy attendance with the possibility of a trip to Wembley on the horizon. However, only 546 souls braved bitter weather conditions on a Tuesday evening as Bath were beaten 2-1 by Grimsby, in what has been reported as the lowest attendance to watch the Mariners in a competitive fixture since the War. 

The low attendance in the FA Trophy has also been mirrored by comparatively low attendances in the league with Bath, at 890 fans per match, currently having the third worst average attendance in the Conference behind Hayes & Yeading United and Alfreton Town.  This level of support is unsustainable at Conference level, given the level of wages required to acquire the quality of player that the club needs to attract in order to survive, and it is no coincidence that the three clubs with the lowest gates in the Conference currently occupy the bottom three positions in the table.

Like Newport, one of the problems that Bath faced at the outset of the season was the increased expectation of the fans.  Having finished a highly creditable 10th in their first season back in the Conference, few would have anticipated that the club would be staring relegation in the face by mid February.   However, the lack of income from gate receipts has proven to be a significant hindrance in Adie Britton’s attempts to improve the squad.

This has lead to the recent and highly controversial announcement that the Twerton Park stadium will be renamed by the winner of a draw, the entry fee for which is £50.  There are virtually no restrictions on the winner in terms of what they will rename the stadium and there are also no restrictions preventing opposition supporters from entering.  The aim is clearly to raise a significant amount of money through one off donations with  the prize potentially being permanent recognition at Twerton Park for the winning supporter or business.  However, whilst Bath are currently publicising the scheme as innovative and exciting, it has met with a decidedly mixed reaction amongst the supporters and perhaps gives a strong indication of the state of the club’s finances.

Despite the challenges that Bath City currently face with their finances, Adie Britton was still able to strengthen his squad with three January transfer window signings.  The most notable of these signings in the context of Tuesday evenings game with Newport is Tommy Doherty, a player of some quality who represented Northern Ireland on 9 occasions from 2003-5 and who made nearly 200 appearances for Bristol City.  During a spell at Wycombe, Doherty made the PFA League Team of the Year on two occasions and he was a regular for Newport County until Justin Edinburgh’s decision to release him in the January transfer window in favour of players with a greater work ethic.  That level of ability should aid Bath greatly as they seek to produce the seemingly impossible, though sadly for the Romans goal scoring is not one of Doherty’s strongest points, with only 9 career goals from midfield.

Also joining the Romans in January were Andy Gallinagh and Sean Canham.  Gallinagh, a 26 year old defender who, whilst never able to hold down a first team position at Cheltenham Town, proved to be a useful squad member, making 130 appearances over five years.  Gallinagh is in some ways not new to Bath, as he has already made 14 appearances for the club this season during a two month emergency loan spell.  Striker Sean Canham has also spent two months on loan at Twerton Park this season and returns to the club on another loan deal, having scored five goals in 14 games during his first spell with Bath City.  Whilst Canham has previously been sent out on loan a number of times before, he has generally produced a reasonable goal return with a particularly successful spell at Hayes & Yeading in 2009 when he netted 6 times in just 14 games.  However, apart from this short spell, he has never managed to recapture the form that saw him score 68 times in 120 appearances for Team Bath.  The Romans will need him to net a number of times between now and the end of the season if they are to survive.

This week has become a critical week in determining whether Bath City have any chance of escaping the drop. On paper, there were three very winnable fixtures against sides in the bottom half of the table.  However, despite creating chances on Tuesday evening, the Romans fell to a 1-0 defeat against Newport County at Spytty Park in the first of these matches after an early Lee Minshull goal.  This blow now means that the forthcoming home games against Ebbsfleet United and Hayes & Yeading are absolutely critical.  Should Bath manage to accumulate a minimum of six points from these games, they could move potentially move themselves within touching distance of the teams above them. This would allow the club to go into a tough sequence of games against promotion chasing  Kidderminster, Luton and York with more confidence.  Anything less, however, and the task will be virtually impossible.

The reality of the situation is, as was demonstrated at Spytty Park last night, that whilst supporters will highlight games that they see as potentially winnable at this stage of the season, it would actually take a dramatic change of form for the Romans to be able to put together the kind of winning run that is necessary to avoid relegation.  Given that Newport are down at the foot of the table and were totally outplayed at Twerton Park in January, Romans fans will have anticipated gaining at least a point and yet they came back with nothing.  Even if they now manage to pick up six points in the games against Hayes & Yeading and Ebbsfleet, they then have to play four of the top five over the course of the next month and it is unlikely that they will pick up many points from these games, even allowing for the fact that three of them will be played at Twerton Park.  Consequently, as many of their fans clearly already believe, it is highly probably that Bath City will now be relegated in April. 

Prediction: Bath City will be relegated.

 

Remaining Fixtures

Table		Bath	Hayes	Alfreton	Newport	Kettering
1	Fleetwood	31-Mar		25-Feb
2	Wrexham		18-Feb	6-Apr	17-Mar	3-Mar
3	Luton Town	3-Mar	9-Apr	14-Apr
4	York City	10-Mar	3-Mar	9-Apr	14/4,TBC
5	Kidderminster	25-Feb			9-Apr	14-Apr
6	Southport		7-Apr		3-Mar	13-Mar
7	Grimsby Town		TBC
8	Gateshead		6-Mar		31-Mar
9	Mansfield Town	21-Apr	14-Apr	20-Mar	18-Feb	7-Apr
10	Cambridge			24-Mar	20-Mar	9-Apr
11	Barrow	6-Mar			28-Apr	18/2,21/4
12	Forest Green	9-Apr	17-Mar			21-Feb
13	Braintree Town			31-Mar	6-Mar	25-Feb
14	Tamworth	4-Apr			21-Feb
15	Ebbsfleet	18-Feb		27-Mar		24-Mar
16	Lincoln City	17-Mar	21-Apr	10-Mar	24-Mar
17	Stockport	24-Mar	28-Apr	6-Mar		31-Mar
18	Darlington	14-Apr		18-Feb	10-Mar	28-Apr
19	AFC Telford		24-Mar	3-Mar	7-Apr	TBC
20	Kettering Town		10-Mar	17-Mar
21	Newport County			21-Apr
22	Alfreton Town	28-Apr			21-Apr	17-Mar
23	Hayes	21-Feb				10-Mar
24	Bath City		21-Feb	28-Apr

Do you agree with the prediction? Why not vote in the poll to the left of this article and indicate which four teams you think will be relegated.  At the end of the series, the results of this poll will be compared with the results of this table.

The next article in this series will feature Lincoln City, who are currently 16th in the table. 

Feel Good Factor Evaporates At Twerton

It took just 90 minutes at Twerton Park on Tuesday evening for the feel good factor that had been established over the New Year to evaporate, as County lost their crucial relegation battle against Bath City 3-2.  The defeat was a stark reminder that, in relegation battles, points on the board are often more valuable than games in hand and undid all the good work Chris Blight and his fellow directors had done in establishing hope, unity and expectation for the remainder of the season.

The evening started well enough for Newport, as Nat Jarvis marked his return to the club with a poachers goal, knocking home the rebound after Andrew Hughes’ cross had hit the post.  However, County’s inability to hold an away lead, already demonstrated in recent times at both Grimsby Town and Alfreton Town, was once again exposed as Bath scored twice in seven minutes through Connelly and Canham to earn a deserved 2-1 lead at the interval, as Bath played the neater football and created the better chances.  Any words of wisdom offered by Justin Edinburgh at half time were then quickly quashed as Bath extended their lead through the impressive Scott Murray, who produced an exquisite dummy to create sufficient space to strike his shot past Danny Potter, the County keeper.  Despite pulling a goal back through a Gary Warren header, Newport were unable to find the equaliser they so desperately needed, meaning that only a superior goal difference is keeping them above the relegation zone.

The inquest into what went wrong was already in full swing by half time, as supporters tried to come to terms with the fact that Newport were being outplayed by a team who were bottom of the league with only two league wins all season.  However, Bath City are a better side than their position currently indicates and this win was another indicator of improved confidence and form after a recent victory over Telford United and draws with Mansfield, Kettering and Cambridge.  The defeat may therefore not be the impending message of doom that many currently think it is.

There are a number of factors that will potentially determine Newport’s fate over the coming months.  The first of these is the pitch at Spytty Park, which is widely acknowledged to be in poor condition.  The picture below, taken by Sam Shingler during the home match with Fleetwood in December, gives a clear indication of the mudbath in the goal mouth.  Given that the pitch is also cutting up in other areas and is in poor condition around the centre circle as well, it is perhaps not surprising that Newport’s home record is so poor.

Photo reproduced with kind permission of Sam Shingler

Captain Gary Warren recently argued that the pitch should be an advantage to Newport because County are used to playing on it, whereas visiting sides are concerned about the conditions and the impact the pitch will have on their passing games.  There is a sense in which there should perhaps be truth in this statement, but County’s home record suggests that the opposite is actually the reality as the club have lost five of their last seven games at Spytty.  Whilst three of those games were against promotion seeking Southport, Luton and Fleetwood, the other two defeats were to Tamworth and Ebbsfleet, teams which, with respect, County need to beat if they want to be playing in the Conference Premier next season.  In contrast, whilst the two recent away defeats against Alfreton and Bath have been a disaster, a record of two wins and three draws from the last eight away games represents excellent form for a team in the lower reaches of the division and suggests that County are actually capable of competing at this level when they play on a decent surface.

The sale of Danny Rose has undoubtedly left a hole in midfield and his absence at Twerton Park, along with that of Sam Foley, contributed to the lacklustre performance.  This leaves Justin Edinburgh with some tough decisions to make during the January transfer window.  The manager has been extremely open in acknowledging that some of the players are not demonstrating the work ethic and commitment required to lift the club out of trouble, but the limited resources at Spytty means that it is not really a financially viable option to release players from their contracts.  The excellent reputation of the manager, who spent much of his playing career at Tottenham Hotpsur, should help to attract players to the club but the decision has to be made as to whether to recruit seasoned professionals who have proven ability at conference level or young hopefuls who have shown promise in the lower leagues.  Purchasing talented youngsters is always a risk in that time may prove them to be insufficiently equipped to cope with football at Conference level, but signing seasoned professionals is just as risky given that they may not have the same level of passion in playing for Newport as a younger player who is trying to progress in the game.  The decision to bring back Nat Jarvis from Cardiff for the remainder of the season looks like a shrewd move, with the player netting in his first game since returning at Twerton Park.  However, it is the midfield that requires the most attention.

The third factor is the supporters themselves.  County are renowned for their vocal and passionate supporters and the very fact that 430 made their way across to Bath for a Tuesday night fixture, given County’s perilous league position, speaks volumes for their commitment and enthusiasm for the club.  With the players facing, to use the old cliché, 20 cup finals between now and the end of the season, it is critically important that the fans remain fully committed to the cause, both in terms of the number of supporters attending matches and in terms of providing positive support.  Attitude is such an important factor in professional sport and having the encouragement and belief of a vocal support that truly believe the club can survive could potentially make all the difference.

Back in 1990-1 Sheffield United, who were newly promoted to the top flight, had gained just 4 points from their opening 17 encounters before Christmas.  The club were marooned at the foot of the table and everybody outside the club had already written the Blades off as relegated.  However, the acquisition of Vinny Jones, a footballer of only average ability but immense leadership quality, helped turn the clubs fortunes around to such an extent that they went on a winning streak of 7 matches and finished 13th in the table.  The incredible thing about that situation was that the fans of the club still believed they could stay up, even when the performances and the statistics clearly stated otherwise.  With that kind of belief and camaraderie at Spytty Park, Newport County too will survive, allowing Justin Edinburgh to build a side in his own mould that will fair much better next season.

Kaitlyn Corner – The Views of a 5 Year Old

 

“I felt sad when Bath won 3-2 because I love Newport so much.  I wish Newport were number 1, at the top.”

I guess that mirrors the thoughts of every Newport County fan.  Let’s hope they stay up this season and then follow Wrexham (hopefully) into the football league next season.

All Predictions Wrong As Newport Lose

 

The pollsters who participated in the first poll conducted by this site on the outcome of the Bath City v Newport County game on Tuesday night (which included the author) proved to be as much as a failure, prediction wise, as County themselves were on the night in losing 3-2.

In total 11 people voted, with 8 (72%) suggesting that Newport would win, either in a close game or quite comfortably. 2 people (18%) opted for draws and only 1 (9%) opted for a Bath win. Without doubt, the majority of traffic on this site (and thus the majority of voters) were Newport fans so the big question is Did we have either a Bath supporter or a neutral voting for Bath to win, or was it the one realistic/pessimistic County fan who voted for the Bath win?

Either way, the one voter who opted for a Bath win suggested that they would win comfortably, which was far from the case as Newport desperately sought an equaliser late in the game. Consequently, not one single person guessed the right outcome! A full assessment of the predicament Newport now find themselves will be published tomorrow.  Meanwhile, why not have a go at this week's FA Cup poll and see if collectively we can do better this time in predicting the fates of the three remaining Welsh teams in the FA Cup.

 

Results Summary

1   (9%) Bath City To Win Comfortably                

0   (0%) Bath City To Sneak A Win       

2   (18%) Draw

6   (54%) Newport County To Sneak A Win

2   (18%) Newport County To Win Comfortably              

Bath City v Newport County Preview

 

3 January 2012 at Twerton Park, Bath

County v Mansfield at Field Mill earlier this season. The author and daughter Kaitlyn are on the front row behind the goal. 

Reproduced with kind permission of Sam Shingler

After what initially seemed to have been a torrid Christmas period, Newport County will head to Twerton Park on Tuesday evening in buoyant mood, knowing that a win will take them up to 18th in the league and give much needed breathing space between themselves and the bottom four in the Blue Square Bet Conference Premier Division.

The Christmas period commenced with a Christmas Day announcement that Danny Rose, County’s star midfielder, would be sold to an unnamed club as soon as the transfer window opened on January 1st.  The timing of such an announcement, coupled with the confirmation a couple of days later that the player would be moving to Fleetwood Town for an undisclosed fee caused consternation amongst some supporters who considered the timing and lack of transparency of such announcements unhelpful. 

With the announcement of the sale of Rose still fresh in the supporter’s minds, Newport County then lost out on what would probably have been their highest crowd of the season for the local derby with Bath City when the Spytty Park pitch was deemed unplayable.  This left County facing the very real prospect of dropping into the bottom four before the away encounter with Bath, given that the majority of the teams around them were playing two matches whilst the Newport players and fans enjoyed an unanticipated extended stay at home eating the remains of the Christmas turkey.

During this time of idleness, however, two things have happened which has lifted the spirits of all who associate themselves with County.  Firstly, only Stockport County of the teams embroiled with Newport in the relegation battle at the foot of the Conference actually managed to move above them, County securing a hard earned 3-2 New Year’s Day win against Barrow after a late Sheridan penalty. Kettering Town lost twice and, given the current financial plight of the club, are in serious trouble, whilst Hayes having lost on Boxing Day to Ebbsfleet, were saved from what was potentially going to be a second defeat when the referee abandoned the return New Year’s Day match with Ebbsfleet leading 1-0.  These results have enabled Newport to remain outside the bottom four, whilst giving them potentially crucial games in hand.

The second item of significance was a double statement from chairman Chris Blight concerning the Danny Rose transfer and the desire of the directors to have openness and transparency with the fans.  These messages both highlighted the reasons why the Christmas Day announcement was made and confirmed that manager Justin Edinburgh would have opportunity to strengthen the side in the transfer market during January.  This was then immediately confirmed when 20 year old Cardiff City striker Nat Jarvis was brought back to the club on loan for the remainder of the season.  The response of the supporters to these events has been very positive and a sizeable and vocal amber army is likely to descend upon Twerton Park on Tuesday evening.

Of course, the poor results for many teams near the bottom of the league increases the importance of this game and the pending return fixture at Spytty Park, which is potentially going to be schedule for 10 January.  Bath City, who have been marooned at the foot of the table for the majority of the season, will see an opportunity from these two matches to gain six points, which would make a significant impact on their chances of survival.  The official Bath City website has published a preview of Tuesday’s match with the rallying cry to supporters that they should take heart given recent improved performances that have included creditable draws with Mansfield and Cambridge, as well as a crucial victory over a Telford United side that are rapidly sliding into trouble. 

The preview also claimed that Bath’s draw with Kettering was heartening, but the reality is that in order to survive, the Romans must win the games against the sides just above them in the league table.  However, the only defeat Bath have suffered in the last five games was a 4-1 reverse at Kidderminster and, with home games against both Braintree and Alfreton also to come this month, the club are still far from relegated.

Whilst the media in general tend to exaggerate the importance of individual games during the early part of the season, there is no doubt that this encounter at Twerton Park could be hugely significant to both clubs.  Given the buoyant mood currently at Newport County, along with their own impressive away record recently, which has included a draw at leaders Wrexham and a 4-1 victory over promotion favourites Fleetwood Town, the Exiles will start as favourites to win.  Bath have struggled to score goals and will be looking to Lee Phillips to inspire them to victory by improving upon his current tally of 3 for the season.  Indeed, the Romans strikers have had such a tough time this season that their goalscoring threat is most likely to come from midfield, from where Murray, Canham and Watkins have all netted four times this season.

Prediction: Bath City 1 Newport County 2

Please feel welcome to offer your own prediction by filling in the poll on the left hand side of this article.  The poll will remain open until shortly before kick off.